Andrei
Smirnov

I am a research intern at the Laboratory of Sports Studies (HSE University)

A student of the New Economic School & HSE University joint Economics program

Last year, I was an exchange student at Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona  

Work in progress

 Striking success: How Goals Shape Coach Bias in Football

This study explores how salient yet often uncontrollable outcomes influence decision-making in managerial contexts. Using a unique dataset from European football matches (2014–2020), we introduce the concept of a "decisive goal" - a goal that directly determines a match's outcome - and examine its impact on team selection decisions. Employing a quasi-natural experimental design within a robust causal inference framework, we find that players scoring decisive goals are more likely to be included in the starting lineup for the next match. This pattern reveals a managerial bias driven by outcome salience rather than performance quality. Our analysis bridges gaps in understanding how luck and effort are disentangled in decision-making, providing broader implications for principal-agent relationships and heuristic-driven biases in organizational settings.

From Advantage to Action: How Managers Adapt to External Conditions Strategically

This paper examines how managerial decision-making adapts in response to external advantages by testing the effects of home advantage in professional football. Drawing on a novel theoretical model that characterizes Nash equilibrium strategies under conditions of external asymmetry, the study explores how managers adjust their pre-match lineup choices to adopt a more aggressive strategy when playing at home. Employing data from top European football leagues, I develop new proxies for offensive performance that capture both short-run and long-run goal-scoring achievements. The empirical evidence indicates that managers adjust their strategies in the presence of home advantage. These results contribute to the literature on rational decision-making and strategic adaptation, offering fresh insights into how external advantages shape competitive behavior in economic environments.

Drafts are available upon request

Contact me: 

adsmirnov@nes.ru

andrey04dmit@gmail.com